Assumptions

Assumptions

The influenza pandemic response plan is based on a number of specific assumptions derived from
the public health literature, the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, and the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan.

General Assumptions:

Outbreak Trends

• The first outbreaks in the U.S. are likely to occur in major metropolitan areas
where the rates of international and business travel are high.

• Susceptibility to the virus will be universal.

• Each disease wave will last between 6 to 12 weeks.

• Absenteeism will be in the range of 40%.

• There will be more than one wave of disease separated by several months

• The disease will occur simultaneously throughout the U.S. (and world) and
therefore outside assistance will be unlikely or limited at best.

Transmission and Medical Consequences

• Some persons will become infected but not develop clinical illness and will thus
unknowingly transmit infection.

• Each infected individual will transmit the infection to two other individuals.

      • Persons who become ill may shed virus and can transmit infection for up to one
         day before the onset of illness, with the highest contagion during the first two
        days of illness.

• The attack rate will be 30% or higher in the overall population, highest in children in

grades K-7 and declining with age.

     • The number of hospitalizations and deaths will depend on the virulence of the
        virus. Estimates differ ten fold between more and less severe scenarios. Planning
        should include the more severe scenario.

• Of those infected, about 50% will seek medical care (this could be higher if anti-
viral medications and vaccines are available).

Medical Response

     • Because a vaccine needs to closely match an influenza virus, it is unlikely that a
        vaccine would be available early in a pandemic and quantities will be limited
        even when available. A vaccine will probably be available later in the pandemic
        (second and subsequent waves) but quantities may not meet demand and there
        will need to be priority lists for distribution.

     • Isolation, quarantine, social distancing and personal hygiene practices are likely to
        be at least somewhat effective in slowing transmission and thus reducing the
        overall impact of the disease, especially very early in the outbreak.

Specific to the University of Michigan, we assume the following:

• The first wave will occur during either the fall or spring semester, while classes are in session.

• On their own, students may begin to leave the campus when the first cases occur.

• Faculty and staff absenteeism will be in the range of 40%, increasing quickly if

local K-12 schools and businesses begin to close.

• The University may suspend classes and other operations temporarily; the length of time will be

determined by the conditions of each wave of the pandemic.

• If the University cancels classes and advises the students to return “home,” approximately 45% (?) of

the student population will remain on campus or in Ann Arbor because of travel restrictions or no

suitable alternative living option.

These remaining students include:

• XXX domestic students and XXX international students living in residence halls (currently,

10,000 students live in dorms) who cannot travel home (currently, there are >4,000 international students,

                          >2,000 from E/SE Asia)
                        • XXX international students and family members on North Campus “family” housing (70% of 3,000?)
                        • XXX students (graduate and undergraduate) living in off-campus housing who will remain in the

Ann Arbor area.

Geographic origin of students:

Domestic Student Map click here for the map

International Student Map click here for the map

• Public health recommendations for isolation, quarantine and social distancing might not be voluntary.

UM will provide for isolation and quarantine of UM students and residents of University Residence Halls.

• Recovery and resumption of normal campus activities will be slow and difficult, with great emotional,

physical and financial impact to individuals and the institution.

Welcome To The University

Pandemic Influenza Page